USDCHF analysis of the week of April 13-17, 2020 -

Basic factor

The risk appetite of the market has steadily improved over the past week when there are expected signs that the pandemic is slowing down in hot spots in the US and Europe. Risk-aversion is also fueled by the Federal Reserve's massive lending program for small companies. The Fed on Thursday announced a $ 2.3 trillion support package to provide loans to local governments as well as small and medium businesses, to prevent the economy from collapsing due to the crisis. Coronavirus crisis can cause.

Wall Street got green and ended the week with a high price, while the dollar fell lower due to a sharp increase in the federal money supply.

However, caution remains in the psychology of investors, as there is currently very little positive information about the virus that can be eradicated early and many countries continue to grapple with huge economic losses. caused by disease. Information on viruses and disease situation will remain the main driver of market sentiment this week.

A series of important US economic data will also be released. Most importantly, retail sales for March on Wednesday and unemployment index for the first time on Thursday. Retail sales are expected to fall another 8% in March, but this can be considered not too gloomy when most consumers are advised to stay home. However, the first-time unemployment index may attract more attention. The forecast shows that an additional 5 million more Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week, after a record 16.8 million people applied for unemployment benefits in the past three weeks.

The Fed's increase in money supply will cause the Dollar to decline, but with gloomy economic data that could cause money from risky channels like stocks to run toward the Dollar, causing the currency to appreciate.

Technical analysis

In terms of technical analysis, the USDCHF pair is entering a sideways phase in the newly formed triangle pattern with the upper edge connecting from 0.99 to 0.9797 and the lower edge linking from 0.9391 to 0.9501. Looking at the chart, we can see that USDCHF is gradually moving towards the end of the model and is likely to break out. Therefore, it is likely that the pair will break out of the triangle pattern and head towards the lower resistance zone at 0.951 and further down at 0.94.

In case of breaking the upward pattern, USDCHF will face a strong resistance zone at 0.976-0.9796. This is also a pretty good Supply area to execute long-term sell orders. If this zone breaks, the next Supply at 0.9845 can be considered.

Recommendation: This is just a Trading Idea. For more accurate analysis, you should incorporate other indicators that you have mastered. In particular, always focus on capital management methods to prevent any possible market situation.

Author: Nguyen Chi Thanh

PTKT's partner FX24

Do not forget to like and share this article

About My name is Nguyen Manh Cuong. I was born in a poor village in Ba Vi district, HA NOI province - windy and sunny land. Currently. Mr Cuong.
Newer Posts Newer Posts Older Posts Older Posts


Post a Comment